My buddy Bill called me last week to ask why the Avs wouldn’t take Seth Jones with their first overall draft pick. Since I had just written about it, I pointed him to my blog post (thanks for being a loyal reader, Bill). Which led to his next call, asking why the Avalanche would tip their hand and say who they were going to pick.
A lot of hockey writing in the media and online is speculation and opinions. We don’t know what happens behind closed doors, or what exactly someone is thinking. Even when we are told explicitly, “this is what we are thinking,” we hardly believe them. So there is what we know, and what we don’t know. And that’s how we have to look at this.
What we know:
The Avs said something, which is weird – Since the franchise moved to Colorado (and possibly before), they have been quiet. It’s been the Pierre Lacroix way, and it carried over into the General Managing reigns of Greg Sherman and Francois Giguere. And even though Sherman is still the GM, he has most certainly been gelded with the addition of Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy to the management team and coaching staff. So far, we have heard from Sakic and Roy more than we heard from Sherman all last season (by my counts, once, when the Ryan O’Reilly situation finally ended).
That the Avs are talking to the fans is stunning. We haven’t had much communication from the team for years. Now that there seems to be real effort to turn the team around from the top down, it appears that we, the fans, are finally being catered to a bit. It’s welcome, and though it comes in the form of tipping the hand at the draft, I don’t think fans will turn their backs on this.
In control – The Avs have the first pick. No one can take that away, they can only give it away. So why not say what they think they will do? What is the damage? In fact, it might just help their negotiating position in trade talks. More on that in a moment.
Brief Interlude – What a Smart Person Says:
Elliotte Friedman has a great weekly column called 30 thoughts. If you don’t read it already, you really should. This is what he said today:
9. Back when I first started as a radio reporter covering the Toronto Raptors, then-GM Isiah Thomas warned me, “Never believe anything anyone tells you about the draft. At draft time, everyone lies.” One year later, Thomas gave me the scoop he was going to take Marcus Camby. I didn’t believe him. He did take Camby and laughed, “This time, I was telling the truth.” I couldn’t help but remember that conversation upon hearing the Colorado Avalanche’s newfound openness. Joe Sakic picking up the phone to tell a reporter his team’s plans “certainly goes against ‘The [Pierre] Lacroix Principle,’” an opposing executive said.
10. There is incredible skepticism about what Sakic, who is Colorado’s executive vice-president of hockey operations, and head coach Patrick Roy are saying. However, there are at least two reasons to think they are telling the truth. First, Roy had the best seat in the house in 2012 QMJHL playoffs as Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin led Halifax back from a 3-0 deficit against Quebec. MacKinnon had eight points in the last three games. Second, the Avalanche are trying to rebuild their name in the Denver community. If they are not going to take Seth Jones, who has major local ties, it’s not the worst idea to prepare fans in advance.
That’s a great point about Roy seeing MacKinnon play against his team, and very successfully.
OK, back to my stuff.
What we don’t know, reasons edition – The conventional wisdom goes like this. The Avs need defense, so draft a defenseman. But the Avs need everything (except maybe goaltending, but that remains to be seen), and drafting a defenseman isn’t going to fix their current defense issues. Buying a defenseman (or trading for one) will. So that frees the team up to draft a forward.
Everyone was so convinced that the Avs were going to take Jones that they believed the three top forwards would be available. If you wanted a forward, you didn’t have to deal with the Avs to move up to their pick. Staying quiet would have only led to surprise for two teams who are not in the same conference as the Avalanche, and wouldn’t be previously motivated to talk to them. The second pick is held by Florida and the third by Tampa Bay. Since the Avs don’t want to move below third (pretty sure I heard that somewhere, but I could be wrong), they are free to deal with these two teams and maybe play them against each other to greater effect. Wouldn’t that be fun?
If they moved down one pick, Jones would still be available, and that isn’t a bad pick, even if it doesn’t fill the need they have right now.
What we don’t know, motivation edition – So what was it exactly that made them buck the draft order laid out by central scouting? Does it really matter? Probably not. Whomever the Avalanche pick, they will have a potential NHL player. The draft is a scientific crap-shoot. You never know who you are going to really draft until you put them in camp, in the minors, or on your roster. Will they persevere? Will they adapt? Will they fall apart? No one really knows. All you know is what you see when you scout them, and Patrick Roy has essentially scouted MacKinnon himself. Maybe that’s enough for them.
No matter what, no one will know who the first pick will be until they are chosen, and even then, we don’t know if they will work out. But that’s all just part of the fun.
PS: I will not be at the draft this year. I made it in Columbus and Los Angeles, and had a great time. I look forward to going to one again soon, but not this year. I hope all of you who go have a great time.