Let’s be honest.  The Avalanche have less depth right now than Russell Crowe playing Javert in the Les Miserable movie.

Yes, I went there.

There have been a few defensive call-ups from the farm system.  I’m not as impressed with Elliott as some were when he was called up, but he got better as the season went on.  The problem is that there are few forwards that could develop into top six players in the Monsters right now.  Obviously, if you have a top six forward, put him in the NHL, damn it.  But replacements from Lake Erie  produced mixed results.  And every forward that was highly drafted or highly regarded (Duchene, Landeskog, O’Reilly) went right to the NHL because the need existed.  All three might have benefited from a transition year in the AHL, arguably.  But needs are needs, and needs in hockey are rarely convienient.

So what do you fix?  Do you draft a highly rated defenseman and plug him in right away, do you draft forwards that you might plug in or develop, or do you move down for more picks to stock up?

Let’s break it down.

Why draft a defenseman:

It’s pretty obvious that the Avalanche are in sore need of defense.  They were 27th last season in goals against and 29th in goal differential.  The Avs D was fairly awful in general, chasing pucks, losing steps, taking bad penalties and tuned out when the season was all but over.  When it was pointed out to me on the Avs Hockey Podcast that Matt Hunwick was the most consistent Avs defenseman last season, I almost ate my hat.  I don’t often wear hats, so I almost went to get a hat, put it on, take it off and eat it.

This is largely the defense that will be around next season.  The Avs have six defensemen signed and two call-ups that on entry level deals.  Unless the Avs move someone, you are stuck.  But six defensemen means the seventh slot is available, and that could be Seth Jones.  Aside from Erik Johnson and (grudgingly) Matt Hunwick, you could stick any of the other defensemen in the press box and that would be just fine.  Jones would get his ice time, Tyson Barrie and Stefan Elliott can go work on their game in Lake Erie, and life is good.

That is, if Jones is ready to play in the NHL now.  It’s a given that the first overall pick is going to play in the NHL as soon as the ink is dry on their contract, but that doesn’t mean they are NHL ready.  I’ve already mentioned a few Avs that should have been in Lake Erie for a year.  Let’s look to the east for another highly touted prospect that wasn’t quite NHL ready: Steven Stamkos. Yeah, he’s great right now.  He developed his game in the NHL, but for a time he was in the press box with a note pad.  He had some learning to do, which he did.  And then he came back and eventually tore up the league.

So if Jones isn’t ready for his NHL debut, fine, stick him in the AHL and maybe he has a bright future ahead of him.  A defenseman worth his salt is still an asset no matter when you call them up, no matter when they play for you.  Solid defensemen are not easy to find.  Grab them while you can.

Why draft a forward:

The Avalanche were 27th overall in goals scored (tied with Ottawa with 116, who made the playoffs with a stingy 104 goals against).  I have bad news for Avs fans, that ain’t good.  The fan base is in love with Landeskog, Duchene and O’Reilly, but the production isn’t there yet.  In the shortened season, only four Avs scored over ten goals. O’Reilly may have gotten there had he played the entire season.  Only six players collected twenty points or more.  Only two had over 30 (PA Parenteau and Matt Duchene with 43 each).  That isn’t good.

And how is Lake Erie looking for support?  Like no one is going to develop past a third or fourth liner.  There are no secret weapons looking to be called up.  The team had a ton of patience with players like Ryan Stoa, Joey Hishon may never play in the NHL, considering how his concussion history is going, and Brad Malone is still Brad Malone.  Maybe Sgarbossa will be ready (67th in scoring in the AHL)?  But the Monsters are not looking like the place to go for scoring right now.

If you need a defenseman now, go buy one.  And no, that hasn’t exactly been the Avalanche’s strong suit recently.  Greg Zanon and Jan Hejda aren’t exactly earning their money.  But this is a new regime (I say cautiously, as both Greg Sherman and Pierre Lacroix are still involved with the organization).  From the forwards back, it takes longer for a player to develop the closer you get to the crease, so drafting a defenseman to plug a need now is a crap shoot.  It might work out, or you might wind up stuck with a piece that isn’t providing what you need.

So do the Avs need scoring?  You bet they do.  And a forward fresh out of the draft might be the right fit for a young group like the top six Avalanche forwards.   It depends on how much of a complete game they have.  If they are like Matt Duchene, they might not be what they really need.

But consider that there is one defenseman that everyone is going nuts over while three forwards wait in the wings.  There is more variety and that may help the Avs find exactly what they need.

So what should they do?

Honestly, you got me.  I don’t think there is a losing scenario here, aside from trading down into territory that may not be as plunderable as the top four picks.  And considering the second, third and fifth picks go to the eastern conference (if that is what it will be called in the new realignment), missing out on a certain player isn’t going to come back to haunt you as much if they went to a division rival.

Time will tell.  Even if the Avs take Seth Jones, there is no guarantee that he will work out.  More than anything, I’m stunned that we are hearing anything at all from the Avalanche in June.  New regime indeed.